A new report by the Council on Geostrategy reveals the growing risks posed by the United Kingdom’s heavy reliance on gas, labeling it the nation’s “Achilles’ heel.” Authored by Jack Richardson, an Associate Fellow at the Council, the analysis highlights a stark imbalance: while UK gas consumption fell by just 37% between 2000 and 2023, domestic production plummeted by 70%—leaving the economy exposed to volatile prices.
This vulnerability came at a steep cost in 2022, when geopolitical turmoil forced the UK Treasury to spend £40 billion—equivalent to three-quarters of the annual defense budget—to mitigate energy shocks. With North Sea reserves dwindling and fracking offering limited relief, the report urges accelerated electrification to reduce dependence on unpredictable gas markets.
A Global Gas Dilemma
The UK is the G7’s third-most gas-dependent economy, trailing only the US, and ranks 11th worldwide in total gas consumption. Despite sharing North Sea resources, Norway produces three times more gas per capita than Britain while consuming far less.
The report traces this dependency to a state-led 1960s campaign that rapidly converted 40 million appliances to natural gas—a transition achieved despite public skepticism and political resistance. Today, however, imported piped gas from Norway and LNG (subject to volatile pricing) account for over half of UK supply.
Geopolitical Risks on the Horizon
Reliance on US LNG, the UK’s second-largest source, may prove unreliable amid shifting alliances and rising Asian demand. India, Korea, and Japan are actively securing long-term LNG contracts, with India considering tariff waivers for US imports. Such competition could further inflate costs for Britain.
The Path Forward: Electrification
The report calls for slashing electricity costs to enable widespread electrification of heating—a critical step toward energy sovereignty. Richardson warns: “Britain’s gas dependence leaves us as price-takers in an increasingly unstable world. Diversification through electrification isn’t just economic prudence; it’s a national security imperative.”
Credit: Shannon Williams
